{"id":"W4388734940","doi":"10.3758/s13423-023-02415-x","title":"Rare and extreme outcomes in risky choice","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Psychonomic Bulletin & Review","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council","keywords":"Rare events; Psychology; Social psychology; Actuarial science; Economics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005617748,0.0003031407,0.000647236,0.0008730769,0.0004389156,0.001793961,0.0004532661,0.0008646325,0.002575034],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02146625,0.0002154667,0.0005071597,0.0009364849,0.003736483,0.002177424,0.001358069,0.001882289,0.0001862561],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001042389,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005741929,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001525984,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002011388,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9968473,0.002215353,0.0001212633,0.0002182428,0.0004516244,0.0001462598],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.985926,0.01117046,0.001392214,0.0003965763,0.0005203027,0.0005945065],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007122565,0.0003132917,0.05267846,0.001256724,0.0003751986,0.0003101297,0.002339956,0.02446088,0.000972595,0.6202577,0.002496597,0.2938263],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005009812,0.0001848976,0.05293468,0.0006437768,0.00009282537,0.000292889,0.0006998106,0.01149936,0.0003137949,0.9238814,0.009341888,0.00006463189],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7177466,0.09311345,0.1091445,0.01251575,0.0004296326,0.0001368211,0.0002065633,0.0000427647,0.06666394],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9780716,0.01450279,0.005944241,0.000520411,0.0001392064,0.00003826933,0.00003907261,0.000006889901,0.0007374982],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005617748,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02970988,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2379972523648915,"score_gpt":0.439898438177985,"score_spread":0.2019011858130935,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}