{"id":"W4389239267","doi":"10.1007/s10683-023-09815-9","title":"Forecasting returns instead of prices exacerbates financial bubbles","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Experimental Economics","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Chapman University","keywords":"Economics; Econometrics; Order (exchange); Financial market; Variable (mathematics); Asset (computer security); Financial economics; Finance; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002437524,0.0003592181,0.0005754075,0.0002270189,0.0001343133,0.0007252828,0.0002889467,0.0007360202,0.006636356],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01384449,0.0002529769,0.0001561775,0.0001382463,0.0005671173,0.0006597995,0.0006445724,0.0008976289,0.0003829895],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001770066,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001805883,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002539573,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002142568,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989548,0.000484559,0.0001322731,0.0001343602,0.0001978562,0.00009620293],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.981144,0.01310291,0.003307048,0.001420277,0.0003663336,0.0006594473],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.03364474,0.01842327,0.08539341,0.001673709,0.0005462217,0.0008958214,0.002433564,0.01563791,0.6981358,0.01031656,0.003073648,0.1298253],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004098567,0.06914587,0.3673613,0.0003454962,0.0009509622,0.001435838,0.001738793,0.1164486,0.3802013,0.05026316,0.007744887,0.0002653309],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9971194,0.0000675566,0.001437377,0.0001599139,0.00002263102,0.00002966327,0.00004374392,0.00003706997,0.001082807],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979408,0.00005327103,0.00113893,0.00009899915,0.00002396931,0.00005118785,0.00004567886,0.00001297772,0.0006342241],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006636356,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02220082,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0629959623537546,"score_gpt":0.2344057607048531,"score_spread":0.1714097983510985,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}