{"id":"W4390752473","doi":"10.3390/jrfm17010029","title":"Russia–Ukraine Conflict, Commodities and Stock Market: A Quantile VAR Analysis","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Stock market; Index (typography); Futures contract; Politics; Financial crisis; China; Economics; Stock market index; Economy; Financial economics; Political science; Geography; Macroeconomics; Context (archaeology)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00139918,0.0001441069,0.0005085312,0.000665011,0.0001191516,0.0001927684,0.0001163876,0.00006232745,0.00021093],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005811073,0.0001356659,0.0001996249,0.0004155212,0.00006758102,0.0001808105,0.00009399517,0.0002193477,0.000003226731],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003708296,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001001541,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001272097,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006358745,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988341,0.00002805307,0.0006643797,0.0002352935,0.00006225935,0.0001759052],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999314,0.0000999637,0.0003142091,0.0001571127,0.00002740723,0.00008730315],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002423489,0.0001498996,0.4736408,0.0005104168,0.001226857,0.0001433413,0.001571731,0.00004263035,5.108561e-7,0.3982568,0.005802385,0.1184123],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003924369,0.0001032157,0.5245082,0.00003969316,0.0003163019,0.000008913528,0.00008427547,0.06493736,1.720488e-7,0.02543161,0.3840058,0.0001719465],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8001257,0.03864005,0.1342327,0.0004900362,0.0009184097,0.0002856183,0.0005881902,0.00002889418,0.02469047],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9804655,0.01746848,0.0009538916,0.0000653301,0.0001229346,0.000003728274,0.000003572606,0.00001091331,0.0009056847],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3782035,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5532297,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01373119535153295,"score_gpt":0.2201363062092471,"score_spread":0.2064051108577142,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}