{"id":"W4391219397","doi":"10.1007/978-981-99-5329-5_29","title":"Probability, Surprisal, and Information","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"Behaviormetrics","topic":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Psychology; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003972515,0.0002478872,0.0002503442,0.000712414,0.00009099934,0.0003755498,0.0005806789,0.0003711995,0.00001098395],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00009040732,0.0002477816,0.00007157461,0.0003378419,0.00006073183,0.001036277,0.0005120634,0.0003939831,0.0004429161],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006561726,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001397734,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001996618,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00000425693,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985424,0.000009958823,0.0003945006,0.0003352945,0.0004922027,0.0002256615],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998748,0.0001018948,0.0001864404,0.0005918579,0.000238832,0.0001329539],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[8.683729e-7,0.000008971331,0.00008561349,0.00004542072,0.000005320039,0.000006834327,0.00009177236,0.000004695153,7.35541e-7,0.7106438,0.00130918,0.2877968],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007628375,0.0006008419,0.00565164,0.0004571128,0.00022217,0.0001125499,0.0000130088,0.01181385,0.00005452281,0.6337966,0.3436954,0.002819421],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.0006746199,0.0004297836,0.6835112,0.0004550678,0.001832776,0.0009119361,0.0001043809,0.001788515,0.3102917],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.04411242,0.007377632,0.1531862,0.001395685,0.0004874301,0.0001773982,0.0004975123,0.000295897,0.7924698],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.530325,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999974,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09864311833210673,"score_gpt":0.2652993337396747,"score_spread":0.166656215407568,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}