{"id":"W4391258958","doi":"10.54097/ezc7h416","title":"Predictive Analysis Based on Prophet Model: Evidence from the Number of Epidemic Infections","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Highlights in Business Economics and Management","topic":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Virology; Epidemic model; Medicine; Environmental health","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006289426,0.000189553,0.0004406768,0.0005205087,0.00007108474,0.0001123106,0.000227989,0.0000795888,0.00009229885],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00007654294,0.0001609812,0.0001170307,0.0008592557,0.00008344834,0.0002963448,0.0001235559,0.00009665393,0.00005222837],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002733905,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000420678,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001629231,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003356025,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998499,0.00002176838,0.0006451464,0.0005870523,0.00003363967,0.0002133593],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987833,0.0004418453,0.0002066482,0.0004972966,0.00002452157,0.00004634736],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003007266,0.00006388193,0.02333136,0.0001021215,0.0003500392,0.000003316253,0.000216259,0.522375,5.625276e-7,0.4529272,0.0003649925,0.0002351742],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002563289,0.00001457524,0.1159696,0.0001780056,0.0001524943,2.965495e-7,0.00001181031,0.8427503,0.000004906864,0.01442051,0.02606012,0.0001810957],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7245598,0.003031653,0.2025967,0.05070971,0.00152845,0.001717597,0.0008633918,0.0001482528,0.01484436],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9772254,0.02115226,0.000618261,0.0005427032,0.00005984352,0.0001025622,0.00002279667,0.00002186844,0.0002543162],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4385067,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6564621,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0400049442444428,"score_gpt":0.2668015850652967,"score_spread":0.2267966408208539,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}