{"id":"W4391312023","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7","title":"Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","topic":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; European Commission","keywords":"Climatology; Climate model; Forcing (mathematics); Climate change; Climate state; Radiative forcing; Environmental science; Geology; Meteorology; Global warming; Geography; Oceanography; Effects of global warming","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007381781,0.0003507141,0.0004941619,0.0003813661,0.0003043953,0.0004697588,0.0007726589,0.0006049798,0.0006541465],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003123677,0.0001938101,0.0004527196,0.0002418039,0.000460766,0.0004272664,0.0004645428,0.0005307363,0.00005972145],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003652961,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004637676,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007641472,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00422726,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998181,0.00007083701,0.000009354138,0.00003814103,0.00003084007,0.00003268691],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983056,0.001124966,0.000184082,0.0001538064,0.0001316698,0.00009991483],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006563873,0.00004441966,0.006490067,0.0000099952,0.00003780187,0.0000408823,0.00001833923,0.9880061,0.0009825419,0.001067121,0.00008267278,0.003154332],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003324055,0.000007721213,0.0002309517,3.422591e-7,0.000001509643,0.000001896256,0.00000177933,0.9994962,0.0001191341,0.0001193436,0.00001681488,9.989365e-7],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9200242,0.00005055711,0.07838589,0.00008858963,0.00003107411,0.0000243869,0.00009066262,0.0003248788,0.000979943],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9877309,0.0000121562,0.01200736,0.00001597407,0.000007602911,0.00001617231,0.00006950535,0.00001855546,0.0001217178],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007641472,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.015194,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.00293013192538976,"score_gpt":0.2207414771055868,"score_spread":0.217811345180197,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}