{"id":"W4391436031","doi":"10.14309/ajg.0000000000002687","title":"Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The American Journal of Gastroenterology","topic":"Inflammatory Bowel Disease","field":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology","cited_by":59,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Saskatchewan; CancerCare Manitoba; Ottawa Hospital; Children's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba; University of Alberta; University of Ottawa; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; McGill University Health Centre; University of British Columbia; Research Canada; University of Manitoba; Mount Sinai Hospital; University of Calgary; BC Children's Hospital; Newfoundland and Labrador Centre for Applied Health Research; Dalhousie University; SickKids Foundation; University of Toronto","funders":"Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Eli Lilly Canada; Pfizer Canada; Sandoz Canada; Pfizer; Hospital for Sick Children; University of Toronto; Takeda Canada; Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust; Janssen Canada; Amgen Canada; AbbVie Canada; Amgen; Eli Lilly and Company; Bristol-Myers Squibb","keywords":"Medicine; Incidence (geometry); Confidence interval; Demography; Inflammatory bowel disease; Population; Internal medicine; Disease; Environmental health","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002610308,0.0006965339,0.0005759532,0.00294253,0.001370017,0.001321126,0.001405278,0.0005693033,0.001554331],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006314068,0.0004200363,0.001651525,0.006636685,0.0003909784,0.0005176678,0.0007266146,0.0008524412,0.0002639075],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.02952184,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.04563721,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.996606,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9948932,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987659,0.000168359,0.00007833722,0.0002277901,0.0004606892,0.000298985],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9956943,0.0004185375,0.0005355609,0.0001752712,0.002846227,0.0003300717],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001747507,0.00006025215,0.9366124,0.0002522369,0.0006150695,0.0001754563,0.0002231083,0.02482206,0.0002543748,0.001114077,0.01241217,0.02328413],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006812817,0.00006738366,0.8783997,0.0002197883,0.0005738727,0.0001415095,0.0006373058,0.1089417,0.0002418846,0.000480557,0.01015774,0.00007041209],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9004021,0.005117572,0.006893437,0.004006196,0.00008226644,0.0002656135,0.07465433,0.0002543781,0.008324116],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.956038,0.002602427,0.007860771,0.0002820605,0.00003461846,0.00005913064,0.03203697,0.00003380588,0.001052114],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02952184,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2141969,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.005518995788797186,"score_gpt":0.2272753176537255,"score_spread":0.2217563218649283,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}