{"id":"W4391753749","doi":"10.3390/jrfm17020071","title":"Do Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Explain the Dynamics of Stock Market Returns?","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Trinity College","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council","keywords":"Predictability; Capital asset pricing model; Econometrics; Economics; Stock (firearms); Financial economics; Ex-ante; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001837738,0.0006197084,0.0008088393,0.0009310024,0.0002581626,0.001765092,0.001109084,0.001278487,0.002423026],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01290441,0.0004223611,0.0008332728,0.001081048,0.0006662097,0.003172767,0.0007133085,0.001000077,0.0008606407],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005555294,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005771426,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005307531,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002907892,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996861,0.0001164184,0.00002209315,0.00005646001,0.0000480579,0.0000709989],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9949591,0.002666811,0.001332712,0.0005917414,0.000308404,0.0001411936],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004279325,0.0004650299,0.3112377,0.0005449362,0.001202671,0.0008874116,0.001224278,0.289272,0.002797971,0.2736054,0.008108693,0.1102261],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000579831,0.00008316333,0.0573035,0.00006197609,0.0001573809,0.0002590845,0.0001975637,0.7256252,0.0004981303,0.2126515,0.003053509,0.00005096988],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.874974,0.003838473,0.101012,0.007734087,0.0001163842,0.00004899404,0.0005613271,0.0003956596,0.01131893],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9942905,0.001236854,0.002415632,0.0002357894,0.00009197541,0.00001636355,0.0002234479,0.00003001324,0.001459497],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005307531,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01055324,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02328503407327234,"score_gpt":0.2212243422199752,"score_spread":0.1979393081467029,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}