{"id":"W4392197295","doi":"10.1029/2022wr034377","title":"Considering Uncertainty of Historical Ice Jam Flood Records in a Bayesian Frequency Analysis for the Peace‐Athabasca Delta","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Water Resources Research","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BC Hydro (Canada)","funders":"BC Hydro","keywords":"Flood myth; Bayesian probability; Range (aeronautics); Hindcast; Environmental science; Climate change; Climatology; Physical geography; Meteorology; Hydrology (agriculture); Statistics; Geography; Geology; Mathematics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005179696,0.0003938148,0.0004260576,0.001749436,0.0005214824,0.001108145,0.0009389297,0.0008093034,0.0006771065],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02183172,0.0003493587,0.0006727919,0.0009232422,0.0005267095,0.0009594379,0.0007463618,0.0007262339,0.00006401799],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002062671,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001211345,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.142639,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0754832,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986687,0.0006819325,0.00007912899,0.0002409812,0.0002314035,0.00009778723],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9868303,0.01107043,0.001005696,0.0002981296,0.0005757938,0.0002196769],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007444331,0.0000478347,0.09297229,0.00001683705,0.0001305155,0.0001211397,0.0001198455,0.8889499,0.0003538654,0.00200033,0.0002271221,0.01498576],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003957848,0.000008436639,0.01596237,0.000007616114,0.00001701061,0.00001219252,0.00003419066,0.9828076,0.00006290621,0.0009629053,0.0001069635,0.00001384535],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9350113,0.0001569537,0.0628017,0.0005294618,0.000009348787,0.00002794015,0.000427056,0.0001015017,0.0009347553],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9956734,0.00003814093,0.003927464,0.00001798465,0.000009984816,0.000008799275,0.0001865234,0.000007302331,0.0001303785],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.857361,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2836174,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04358472110082967,"score_gpt":0.2905429356988229,"score_spread":0.2469582145979932,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}