{"id":"W4392566148","doi":"10.1137/1.9781611977820.ch1","title":"Chapter 1: Probability, Coin Tosses, and Polynomials","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics eBooks","topic":"Probability and Statistical Research","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004864332,0.001067519,0.000900659,0.001960873,0.001270135,0.003624242,0.0008880529,0.001375072,0.05162938],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002724867,0.0004845123,0.0004862668,0.004151805,0.002193369,0.004196495,0.0009232461,0.003461377,0.01465106],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001655845,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001427603,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001324183,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002219412,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994115,0.0001169102,0.00002227153,0.0001037385,0.0003068772,0.00003870279],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991486,0.0005505238,0.0000414632,0.000067323,0.0001512482,0.00004080084],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001314898,0.00002403624,0.0000983409,0.0003068296,0.000007248731,0.0000301725,0.0001433735,0.000672916,0.0002007699,0.6838687,0.259279,0.05535537],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003795923,0.00001439143,0.0002243036,0.0002683046,0.000005831635,0.0001378166,0.00005092367,0.0006170211,0.00008393436,0.4165988,0.5819839,0.00001088873],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.001265701,0.1808479,0.03598825,0.008220324,0.009852942,0.00006744847,0.0005966465,0.0003184057,0.7628424],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.0390592,0.1819581,0.01408134,0.003743394,0.02932789,0.000192527,0.0007616568,0.0004995503,0.7303763],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.05162938,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1727175,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2045280540962293,"score_gpt":0.3333983114026488,"score_spread":0.1288702573064195,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}