{"id":"W4392661641","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16427","title":"Development of a river breakup prediction model","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Breakup; Hazard; Climatology; Environmental science; Meteorology; Hydrometeorology; Geology; Hydrology (agriculture); Precipitation; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003152784,0.000644378,0.0006517317,0.0004540029,0.0005835982,0.001165803,0.001579789,0.0009824969,0.006002998],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008363501,0.0005911788,0.0009468691,0.0005737634,0.0002759289,0.001044377,0.0007817101,0.001340536,0.001590305],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008747035,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00179613,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04657182,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02107034,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997824,0.0000253854,0.00001682511,0.00008637834,0.00006223622,0.00002680857],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999738,0.00008018652,0.00002696481,0.0000175115,0.0001214381,0.00001589524],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001228807,0.0000156192,0.0009518516,0.00001873271,0.00001211547,0.0000509702,0.00001336342,0.9847148,0.0004934897,0.001579654,0.0008651662,0.01127194],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002871603,0.000004225191,0.00008395703,0.000002170866,0.000003111823,0.000003468286,0.000002896748,0.9986762,0.0001297931,0.0003428612,0.0007463004,0.000002040556],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.0509325,0.0003110501,0.9160038,0.0007526441,0.0001867472,0.0002573432,0.003661344,0.005593331,0.02230116],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7374953,0.000629376,0.2233085,0.0002067015,0.000103873,0.0007823856,0.007841825,0.0003815924,0.02925045],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.04657182,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09260148,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01711550892952013,"score_gpt":0.2132907002146832,"score_spread":0.1961751912851631,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}