{"id":"W4392663706","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8","title":"Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":958,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Division of Mathematical Sciences; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Institute of Mental Health; National Institute on Aging; Jeffrey Cheah School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Monash University Malaysia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney; Dipartimento di Medicina e Chirurgia, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca; Nemzeti Kutatási, Fejlesztési és Innovaciós Alap; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities; Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Erasmus Universitair Medisch Centrum Rotterdam; Center for International Health; Yonsei University College of Medicine; National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre; Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center; National Research, Development and Innovation Office; Queensland Brain Institute; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Russian Academy of Sciences; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; National Health and Medical Research Council; Medical Research Council; Musculoskeletal Research Center, Washington University in St. Louis; Health Equity Research Center, Washington State University; School of Medicine, Indiana University; University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio; Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine; College of Engineering, Michigan State University; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Defense Threat Reduction Agency; Directorate for Computer and Information Science and Engineering; Foundation for Cardiovascular Research; National Institutes of Health; Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales; Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo; George Institute for Global Health; National Science and Technology Council; National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research, Raebareli; Humanitas Research Hospital; Universitas Sam Ratulangi; Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde; Western Sydney University; Alfaisal University; AXA Research Fund; Istituto Superiore di Sanità; Hubei University; Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa; Duke Kunshan University; Jahrom University of Medical Sciences; Universidad ICESI; Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya; Hubei University of Medicine; Menzies Institute for Medical Research; H. Lundbeck A/S; Debre Markos University; Universität Kassel; University of Gujrat; Universidad Santiago de Cali; Southern University of Science and Technology; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation; Fundació Institut de Recerca Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron; Health Canada; Chettinad Academy of Research and Education; Rajarata University of Sri Lanka; Public Health England; Yonsei University; Northumbria University; Amgen; Hawassa University; Jawaharlal Institute Of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research; National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry; University of Rochester; Debreceni Egyetem; Zanjan University of Medical Sciences; University of Zanjan; Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen; University of Hail; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Dire Dawa University; Dezful University of Medical Sciences; Università degli Studi di Udine; Kurdistan University Of Medical Sciences; Universidade de Pernambuco; Emory University; Nanjing University; Hebei University; Hacettepe Üniversitesi; Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman; Universitas Sebelas Maret; Universitat Rovira i Virgili; Allergan; International Medical University; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Chongqing Medical University; Urmia University; Khulna University; University of Cape Town; University of Isfahan; Servier; Public Health Agency of Canada; Wuhan University; Sungkyunkwan University; Trakya Üniversitesi; Universidade do Porto; University of Johannesburg; Cleveland Clinic; Generalitat de Catalunya; University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences; Capital Medical University; National Cheng Kung University; Fundação Oswaldo Cruz; National Taiwan University; Université de Genève; University of Gondar; Sanofi; University of Thessaly; United Arab Emirates University; Indian Institute of Technology Mandi; Bangladesh University of Health Sciences; Bahir Dar University; University of Health and Allied Sciences; Universidade de Lisboa; Göteborgs Universitet; National Research University Higher School of Economics; Bahauddin Zakariya University; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; University of Florida Health; University of Jordan; University of California, Irvine; Bournemouth University; Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University; Uniwersytet Łódzki; Tarbiat Modares University; Golestan University of Medical Sciences; Universitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie \"Carol Davila\" Bucureşti; Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy; Mittuniversitetet; Universidad de Antioquia; Sydäntutkimussäätiö; Wuhan University of Science and Technology; Nanjing University of Science and Technology; Novo Nordisk; Intas Pharmaceuticals; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; Shiraz University; Wachemo University; American Heart Association; Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi; Curtin University of Technology; Zahedan University of Medical Sciences; Universiteit van die Vrystaat; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; Universidade de Macau; Public Health Agency; Inyuvesi Yakwazulu-Natali; Università degli Studi di Genova; Al-Farabi Kazakh National University; University of Waterloo; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Vrije Universiteit Brussel; Xiangya Hospital, Central South University; Rajiv Gandhi University of Health Sciences; Quaid-i-Azam University; Universitas Gadjah Mada; Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana; Warszawski Uniwersytet Medyczny; American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases; Karolinska Institutet; Semnan University; KU Leuven; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Houston Methodist Hospital; Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences; Patuakhali Science and Technology University; University of St Andrews; Isfahan University of Medical Sciences; Universität Regensburg; Haramaya University; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; Ministry of Health and Medical Education; Linköpings Universitet; James Madison University; Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust; Hjärt-Lungfonden; Ministry of Health, New Zealand; National Research Foundation of Korea; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; Bundesministerium für Gesundheit; Universitätsklinikum Heidelberg; Florida International University; University of Minnesota; Anhui Medical University; Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology; Chulalongkorn University; Wellcome Trust; Korea University; Seoul National University; Gachon University; Taibah University; University of Hull; Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora; United States Agency for International Development; Jimma University; Birzeit University; Yale University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Crete; Robarts Research Institute; Farhangian University; Zhejiang University; University of Twente; Queensland University of Technology; University of Central Punjab; James Cook University; Hallym University; Griffith University; Pan American Health Organization; Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale; University of Leicester; Flinders University; Eli Lilly and Company; Charles Sturt University; Temple University; Victoria University of Wellington; Amity University; Mahidol University; Indian Council of Medical Research; Rice University; University of the West of England; Royal Australian College of General Practitioners; Tamilnadu State Council For Science And Technology; Macquarie University; Urmia University of Medical Sciences; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology; Augusta University; University of Embu; Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences; Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II; La Trobe University; Dilla University; Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide; Environmental Defense Fund; Australian Catholic University; Army Medical University; Tehran Heart Center; Universitas Mataram; National Research Foundation; Cardiff University; University of Nottingham; King's College London; University of Ottawa; Guru Angad Dev Veterinary and Animal Sciences University; Michigan State University; Monash University Malaysia; Jackson State University; Uniwersytet Warszawski; University of Southampton; University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences; Peking Union Medical College; Johns Hopkins University; Kyung Hee University; International Association for the Study of Pain; University of Exeter; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Asian Institute of Medicine, Science and Technology; Adamas University; University of New South Wales; Houston Methodist Research Institute; Vanderbilt University; Lebanese American University; Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung; Government of Jiangsu Province; Ministero della Salute; Central South University; Rede de Química e Tecnologia; Neyshabur University of Medical Sciences; Corporación colombiana de investigación agropecuaria; African Population and Health Research Center; Technische Universität Berlin; Ajou University; University of Central Florida; Philipps-Universität Marburg; Saveetha Dental College; Kasturba Medical College, Manipal; Lunds Universitet; University of Canberra; Cairo University; Brien Holden Vision Institute; Vistagen Therapeutics; Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Curtin University, Malaysia; Chalmers Tekniska Högskola; Duke-NUS Medical School; Charotar University of Science and Technology; Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri - IRCCS; Keele University; New Zealand Government; Florida Department of Health; University of Agriculture, Peshawar; Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg; Universidad de Buenos Aires; Università di Pisa; Legal Aid New South Wales; Federation University Australia; Biogen; Case Western Reserve University; Radboud Universiteit; Aksum University; China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences; Universidad de Colima; Vanderbilt University Medical Center; European Commission; Ahmadu Bello University; Akademiska Sjukhuset; Cedars-Sinai Medical Center; University of Wisconsin-Madison; University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston; Ateneo de Manila University; Boston Scientific Corporation; King Abdulaziz University; Scottish Government; Uppsala Universitet; Gulf Medical University; NHS Health Scotland; Universitatea din București; Northwell Health; Pomorski Uniwersytet Medyczny W Szczecinie; Xuzhou Medical University; Massachusetts Eye and Ear; Queensland Health; Fondation Botnar; University of New England; American Diabetes Association; Lingnan University; Gonabad University of Medical Sciences; Tomsk Polytechnic University; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Islamic Azad University; Birjand University of Medical Sciences; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; Anglia Ruskin University; University of Essex; McMaster University; Directorate for Biological Sciences; Delhi Technological University; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; University of Bern; Ministry of Education; Sveučilište u Zagrebu; University of South Florida; University of Karachi; Burnet Institute; Harvard University; Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum; Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University; AstraZeneca; Edwards Lifesciences; Università degli Studi di Padova; Indian Council of Agricultural Research; Korean Diabetes Association; Uniwersytet Medyczny im. Karola Marcinkowskiego w Poznaniu; Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services; U.S. Department of Defense; Indivior; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; University of California, San Diego; Università di Catania; International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society; Università degli Studi di Milano; Bayer; University of Otago; Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer; British Columbia Centre for Disease Control; Children's Hospital of Philadelphia; National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis; Syddansk Universitet; Massachusetts General Hospital; University of Montana; Aarhus Universitet; Beni-Suef University; Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences; Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences; UK Research and Innovation; United Nations Population Fund; Al-Azhar University; Universitas Udayana; University Of Nigeria Nsukka; Conquer Cancer Foundation; University of Nevada, Las Vegas; National Taiwan Normal University; University of Pennsylvania; University of South Africa; Mekelle University; Itä-Suomen Yliopisto; Universiti Putra Malaysia; Shiraz University of Medical Sciences; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Umm Al-Qura University; Victoria University; Clemson University; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen; Alberta Health Services; Xiamen University; London School of Economics and Political Science; Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; Norwegian Institute of Public Health; University of Tasmania; Department of Health and Social Care; Gilead Sciences; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Kuopion Yliopistollinen Sairaala; University of Southern California; University College London; National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences; Student Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences; Universidad Nacional de Colombia; Northwestern University; Indian Institute of Technology Madras; Iran University of Medical Sciences; Háskólinn í Reykjavík; Pfizer; Loyola University Chicago; ICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute; Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale; Monash University; Gazi Üniversitesi; Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation; Keio University; Lovely Professional University; St. Baldrick's Foundation; Birmingham City University; University of Nebraska Medical Center; University of Toronto; Universidade Federal de Pernambuco; Fudan University; Universidade da Beira Interior","keywords":"Life expectancy; Pandemic; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Demography; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Population; Longevity; Geography; Medicine; Gerontology; Virology; Outbreak; Sociology; Disease","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003021202,0.0004721777,0.0003967607,0.005086587,0.0001888299,0.0006370962,0.0003861655,0.0002164871,0.003100379],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005097168,0.000217396,0.001459677,0.007509775,0.0001842401,0.0007872679,0.001014464,0.0004176043,0.001259067],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000755573,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001277874,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02510564,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02446838,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990791,0.0003007853,0.0001875169,0.0001612136,0.0001910457,0.00008043435],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998242,0.0003620711,0.0005339987,0.0002050313,0.0005845937,0.00007230685],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001105118,0.00002703174,0.9329034,0.000629877,0.000750353,0.00006718854,0.000635441,0.005657427,0.0002584867,0.0008560609,0.01694748,0.04115666],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001310308,0.00007833701,0.9721533,0.000362943,0.0003069455,0.0001195316,0.0009351152,0.003371097,0.0003168528,0.0006057868,0.02170339,0.00003362489],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5154117,0.004581755,0.01176276,0.0008768096,0.0001226576,0.0003068123,0.4568141,0.0003257666,0.009797554],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7278749,0.003589087,0.01219916,0.0001761523,0.00008125947,0.0007771876,0.2534311,0.00007095301,0.001800297],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02510564,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04991901,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1881316555659082,"score_gpt":0.4472126101307867,"score_spread":0.2590809545648785,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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