{"id":"W4392760147","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12765","title":"Assessment of tropical cyclone hazard and risk in a changing climate by means of a new global hybrid model","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Tropical cyclone; Climatology; Hazard; Tropical cyclone forecast model; Environmental science; Climate change; Cyclone (programming language); Meteorology; Geography; Computer science; Oceanography; Geology; Ecology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002509135,0.0003143579,0.0007652224,0.0002504089,0.00005014628,0.00008056868,0.0003705942,0.0002240148,0.0006001551],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004898044,0.0002339188,0.0001907343,0.0004096396,0.0001789526,0.00005774192,0.0005561674,0.0009337174,0.00002139825],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002466615,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002555277,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01920489,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03005617,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997081,0.0001432961,0.0006926928,0.00068038,0.0006711494,0.0007315149],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990043,0.0001172969,0.0001395631,0.0003469247,0.00004265151,0.0003492414],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009434495,0.00006499948,0.9615225,0.0007011815,0.00007994536,0.0000141211,0.00006854735,0.01534023,0.00003738006,0.001982857,0.0003764864,0.01971741],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004021511,0.0001361904,0.6269073,0.0001957427,0.00006306513,0.000006042146,0.00003748073,0.346157,0.00002653213,0.02565416,0.0001728329,0.0002414495],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9754353,0.002617772,0.01468279,0.0004874647,0.000134977,0.0003616351,0.00206429,0.00004238052,0.004173367],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9791583,0.003795487,0.01653961,0.00002988911,0.00006816235,0.000004054112,0.0001648714,0.000007332233,0.0002322947],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3346151,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9876428,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02880307747280994,"score_gpt":0.3047260368125517,"score_spread":0.2759229593397418,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}