{"id":"W4395685689","doi":"10.5194/esd-15-501-2024","title":"Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Earth System Dynamics","topic":"Atmospheric Ozone and Climate","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"H2020 European Research Council; Biological and Environmental Research","keywords":"Volcano; Coupled model intercomparison project; Climatology; Environmental science; Climate model; Northern Hemisphere; Radiative forcing; Forcing (mathematics); Atmospheric sciences; Climate change; Southern Hemisphere; Polar vortex; Geology; Stratosphere; Seismology; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003004991,0.001356586,0.001160542,0.0008901313,0.0007915368,0.001412743,0.001739454,0.001599802,0.003232094],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003662807,0.0006343189,0.002623884,0.0008858395,0.0004970775,0.00102272,0.001031538,0.001868756,0.0004504905],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001400525,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001338432,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0528309,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02230179,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994777,0.0002095471,0.00003245267,0.00013519,0.00006345133,0.00008163878],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.997695,0.001390322,0.0002035072,0.0001599883,0.0003673706,0.0001837178],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000276644,0.0001536949,0.03241226,0.00007466562,0.0005847469,0.0001134339,0.00004603812,0.9600854,0.0007887537,0.0007277185,0.001717311,0.003019428],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004879719,0.000065954,0.01094073,0.000008506523,0.00009436831,0.00001675763,0.00003653423,0.9877387,0.0003283315,0.0002853685,0.0004128201,0.00002319404],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.986461,0.0003348216,0.004210738,0.0006647577,0.00008894729,0.00004766252,0.004690799,0.0004585031,0.003042896],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9927758,0.00009364195,0.002729225,0.00009110881,0.00003982311,0.00004658924,0.003471769,0.0001037467,0.000648453],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0528309,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1050468,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01454099554223741,"score_gpt":0.2640642033430957,"score_spread":0.2495232078008583,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}