{"id":"W4396685046","doi":"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011200","title":"Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"PLoS Computational Biology","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":32,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria; TRIUMF","funders":"State of California; National Institute of General Medical Sciences; Laboratory Directed Research and Development; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Defense Threat Reduction Agency; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Andrew and Corey Morris-Singer Foundation; Los Angeles County Department of Public Health; National Science Foundation; Google; Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists; Johns Hopkins University; Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Virginia Department of Health; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; Los Alamos National Laboratory; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Iowa State University; Amazon Web Services; National Institutes of Health; Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung; U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; U.S. Department of Defense","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Baseline (sea); Econometrics; Pandemic; Confidence interval; Statistics; Forecast skill; Government (linguistics); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Mathematics; Medicine; Disease; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.03019273,0.0009524835,0.001006888,0.001403304,0.0006903579,0.003048617,0.001875563,0.001412283,0.001066966],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07675392,0.0005813341,0.001076548,0.001623567,0.0006732955,0.003496668,0.001680131,0.001973823,0.0005875205],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002598767,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003718695,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1105622,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06230229,"domain_scores_codex":[0.992991,0.003932171,0.0005418421,0.001139579,0.001009133,0.0003863827],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9686611,0.02253403,0.002180159,0.001686642,0.003960108,0.0009779715],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003615624,0.0001274372,0.1845992,0.000389309,0.0004211879,0.0002589065,0.001110946,0.6439986,0.0005295223,0.0093269,0.04028932,0.1185871],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003773806,0.00008870252,0.02557508,0.0004765973,0.00006290844,0.0001123551,0.001347887,0.9274384,0.0004622285,0.03035309,0.01393512,0.000109973],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7510303,0.01057905,0.1096997,0.07722855,0.001920261,0.0003268957,0.02649985,0.002909893,0.01980556],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9620781,0.001289502,0.02597793,0.001979737,0.0003723575,0.00008290672,0.007479684,0.0002381665,0.0005015553],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1105622,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2198373,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4825568105569639,"score_gpt":0.4602475956634608,"score_spread":0.02230921489350307,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}