{"id":"W4396946178","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8","title":"Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Health disparities and outcomes","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":947,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council; Science and Engineering Research Board; Medical Research Council; Rede de Química e Tecnologia; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals; Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India; H. Lundbeck A/S; Fondation Botnar; National Research Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; The Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; Svenska Läkaresällskapet; Universidade do Porto; Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior; Wellcome Trust; Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea; Novo Nordisk; Biogen; Hjärt-Lungfonden; National Institutes of Health; Conquer Cancer Foundation; Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; National Research Foundation of Korea; Indian Council of Medical Research; Ministry of Education; Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India; AstraZeneca; European Commission; Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung; Amicus Therapeutics; University of Oxford; Fresenius Medical Care North America; St. Jude Children's Research Hospital; National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde; Astellas Pharma; World Cancer Research Fund; Gilead Sciences; International Association for Suicide Prevention; World Health Organization; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Korean Diabetes Association; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; Alexion Pharmaceuticals; National Institute of Mental Health; Ministerul Cercetării, Inovării şi Digitalizării; International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society; American Diabetes Association; Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit; Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy; Sanofi; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Amgen","keywords":"Life expectancy; Disease burden; Environmental health; Medicine; Disability-adjusted life year; Public health; Disease; Demography; Years of potential life lost; Per capita; Risk assessment; Burden of disease; Global health; Actuarial science; Population; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004474058,0.0009479563,0.0006547793,0.001657964,0.0004541604,0.001016393,0.000825798,0.0009768012,0.002764763],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006278001,0.0004102456,0.002014673,0.002353464,0.0002693376,0.001174825,0.0007457194,0.001170741,0.0005044059],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002037521,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001147364,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05489361,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0287286,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992613,0.0004157157,0.00003752665,0.0001206599,0.00008633373,0.00007845961],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975229,0.001589116,0.0002594129,0.000143413,0.0003565517,0.0001286351],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003001936,0.00003661782,0.05392753,0.0001736688,0.0003237198,0.0003029797,0.0002093503,0.9190388,0.0002385062,0.005267373,0.008960304,0.01122092],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006131542,0.0001408372,0.02758332,0.0001499828,0.0001715816,0.000155558,0.000455176,0.9581212,0.0002210558,0.006475337,0.00639327,0.00007132698],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8864945,0.002549222,0.03669298,0.003628028,0.0002511874,0.0002751276,0.05962004,0.0006557763,0.00983302],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9435046,0.00099758,0.01830419,0.0001909202,0.00007363031,0.0003931008,0.03517943,0.00006560442,0.001290862],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05489361,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1091482,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04849938691525427,"score_gpt":0.3595641399302854,"score_spread":0.3110647530150311,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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