{"id":"W4398160628","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2024.2358900","title":"Imputation of Counterfactual Outcomes when the Errors are Predictable","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Business and Economic Statistics","topic":"Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Counterfactual thinking; Imputation (statistics); Econometrics; Statistics; Missing data; Computer science; Mathematics; Psychology; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004955468,0.00008067032,0.0002238335,0.00006510846,0.0001136099,0.0001288196,0.0001458013,0.00004830349,0.0001502005],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001571441,0.00005371466,0.00003866057,0.00004426992,0.0002399763,0.0002998529,0.00001942154,0.0001098011,0.000007167955],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000837332,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002738059,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001043244,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004374926,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991555,0.00004546587,0.0004144024,0.00007966396,0.0001478112,0.0001571232],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989895,0.000473665,0.00025437,0.00006145886,0.000151994,0.00006896744],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"qualitative","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002824348,0.0002324329,0.2746277,0.00117595,0.0009702162,0.0001783337,0.4176657,0.00274022,0.0000489932,0.06986657,0.1216624,0.1105491],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009975971,0.0002743215,0.662933,0.0009263001,0.0004789602,0.00008662463,0.2102919,0.01533416,0.00002380411,0.05855577,0.04960703,0.0004904712],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9528921,0.0008539417,0.03940184,0.003430632,0.002689683,0.00008373131,0.0003573538,0.00001103139,0.0002797424],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9985531,0.0006188902,0.0001820556,0.00010349,0.0003259136,9.105059e-7,0.000001646336,0.000007704045,0.0002062895],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3883053,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.219042,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02184780029379314,"score_gpt":0.2988445224429097,"score_spread":0.2769967221491166,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}