{"id":"W4399279373","doi":"10.3386/w32509","title":"Procyclical Stocks Earn Higher Returns","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Islamic Finance and Banking Studies","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University; University of Alberta","funders":"Yale School of Management; Yale University","keywords":"Monetary economics; Economics; Business; Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004018719,0.0003048129,0.0002361264,0.001155097,0.0001698682,0.0009563727,0.0001713583,0.0002828939,0.008324591],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003217994,0.00009990392,0.000222873,0.00117755,0.0001423834,0.0004621897,0.000385326,0.0003798899,0.002020926],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000251896,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001432357,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003845783,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005148684,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998165,0.00001758878,0.0000197273,0.00003156087,0.00007106499,0.00004360681],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9963936,0.0006685205,0.001927399,0.0002633783,0.0004838514,0.0002631767],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001555925,0.0001989382,0.8915923,0.0000659788,0.0001854598,0.0002456556,0.0001859574,0.001294954,0.003835245,0.003238352,0.005623539,0.09337804],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001287588,0.00009393334,0.9904862,0.00001261497,0.00006937019,0.0003054253,0.0001470428,0.0009618617,0.001777628,0.00110828,0.005012732,0.00001196225],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9840354,0.0004250718,0.0004996704,0.0002835556,0.00002715613,0.00001302521,0.001298064,0.00008858163,0.01332952],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9915467,0.0003239531,0.0002616301,0.00008887589,0.00003892087,0.000004693869,0.001325182,0.00001580568,0.006394272],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008324591,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02784854,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.285070248494242,"score_gpt":0.4737654540040497,"score_spread":0.1886952055098077,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}