{"id":"W4399436163","doi":"10.1016/j.finmar.2024.100927","title":"The volatility of stock investor returns","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Financial Markets","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Volatility (finance); Volatility risk premium; Economics; Stock (firearms); Volatility swap; Volatility smile; Financial economics; Implied volatility; Monetary economics; Equity (law); Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001549259,0.0001989622,0.0003943769,0.0009405737,0.0001953641,0.002225613,0.0003957136,0.001153616,0.001989421],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02169235,0.0003662821,0.0003502926,0.0007278204,0.000467314,0.002253389,0.0004292034,0.001204148,0.0004143777],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005221873,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002659248,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001484256,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001525414,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996636,0.00007884884,0.00003238562,0.00005784075,0.0001106058,0.00005675511],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9891823,0.007462944,0.001821468,0.0004741829,0.0006929337,0.0003661894],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009822662,0.00029577,0.7009074,0.0001319952,0.0008015246,0.001619645,0.0007068143,0.0642793,0.0157015,0.144911,0.0068742,0.06278856],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005065472,0.0002187219,0.6193765,0.00005274305,0.0001845575,0.001167831,0.0003088959,0.2897363,0.003778159,0.08238297,0.00265016,0.00009247869],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9881551,0.001018155,0.005878912,0.001279803,0.00007540175,0.000005724292,0.0002759692,0.00004676536,0.003264144],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988346,0.0002290929,0.0001454965,0.0000290948,0.00005697893,0.000001383348,0.0001135531,0.000008452242,0.0005813082],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002225613,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.008193374,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02624783214756428,"score_gpt":0.2291572836176218,"score_spread":0.2029094514700575,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}