{"id":"W4399828674","doi":"10.1142/9789811285530_0018","title":"Stock market crashes in 2007–2009: were we able to predict them?","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"World Scientific series in finance","topic":"Insurance and Financial Risk Management","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Business; Stock market; Stock (firearms); Financial system; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.00153884,0.000591694,0.001094275,0.001744705,0.0002069654,0.0004636823,0.0009836237,0.0002747325,0.003747476],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006048055,0.0007151994,0.0002348502,0.001037599,0.0003438915,0.0004827667,0.0004471689,0.0007547747,0.006752192],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004983843,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009294788,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000128751,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005959356,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9956885,0.000009466286,0.001447638,0.001778455,0.0002010197,0.0008749111],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9981611,0.00004835641,0.0004131956,0.001239246,0.00005269355,0.00008535993],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000685733,0.0000462407,0.003249257,0.0002302972,0.00001881436,0.0001256734,0.0003840205,0.0001992568,4.749195e-7,0.6596564,0.3328474,0.003173573],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001929543,0.00003612275,0.004771375,0.00084389,0.0000055031,0.000002165262,0.00002162397,0.0001345166,0.00000442165,0.2119601,0.7814326,0.0005948133],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.001433282,0.01452441,0.00004635489,0.001508686,0.009005052,0.001036661,0.00118746,0.00008279498,0.9711753],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.01387379,0.003394263,0.0004591304,0.0002060653,0.0002959785,0.0001959781,0.0000434348,0.0001099817,0.9814214],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4485852,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9995299,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02721684026037463,"score_gpt":0.2106853875649074,"score_spread":0.1834685473045327,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}