{"id":"W4400177896","doi":"10.1101/2024.06.27.601089","title":"Eruptive insect outbreaks from endemic populations under climate change","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","topic":"Insects and Parasite Interactions","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria","funders":"Genome Alberta; Genome Canada; Mitacs; University of Alberta; fRI Research; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Government of Alberta","keywords":"Outbreak; Climate change; Insect; Geography; Ecology; Biology; Virology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002645391,0.0005756688,0.0004246995,0.0001891386,0.0002960432,0.0002921771,0.0004951731,0.0005448495,0.002051314],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004245053,0.0005858578,0.0002276485,0.0004471444,0.0001512908,0.0002601267,0.001391805,0.001338903,0.004540178],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008011605,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007778663,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004869895,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00036474,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971354,0.0001271814,0.0005029314,0.001189878,0.0004145616,0.0006300286],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983102,0.00007450947,0.0002815827,0.001032887,0.00005003231,0.0002507746],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001101183,0.0006368285,0.2495737,0.0003165195,0.0006422186,0.0003475762,0.0006777607,0.002538475,0.7315954,0.008605561,0.004912113,0.00004370863],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002448426,0.00004508417,0.9781239,0.0005716667,0.0003227817,5.435143e-8,0.00001292763,0.002016285,0.01041243,0.0002284887,0.006801372,0.001220161],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9909074,0.0005440565,0.0002873199,0.0004304129,0.004152467,0.0007424015,0.001898175,0.000523956,0.0005138388],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9959838,0.0001839258,0.001764786,0.0006565479,0.0008939825,0.0003542532,0.000003140389,0.0001402453,0.00001926051],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7285502,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996593,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04625420927396569,"score_gpt":0.2672076008726175,"score_spread":0.2209533915986518,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}