{"id":"W4401033546","doi":"10.47604/jsar.2754","title":"Modeling Longevity Risk in Pension Funds Using Population Dynamics in Canada","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of statistics and actuarial research.","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Longevity risk; Pension; Longevity; Dynamics (music); Business; Population; Actuarial science; Economics; Finance; Gerontology; Medicine; Psychology; Environmental health","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001765527,0.0004661846,0.0005249968,0.001578505,0.00148043,0.001729088,0.001570648,0.0007367732,0.001733909],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005684047,0.0002534036,0.0009521341,0.00154944,0.0007161869,0.0006712033,0.001113399,0.0007563355,0.0001571816],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.02457107,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.02901261,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9831018,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9616966,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994984,0.0001319291,0.00002124441,0.00009251546,0.00009993133,0.0001560276],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986097,0.0004373752,0.0001617207,0.0000588113,0.0005949987,0.0001374337],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009500127,0.00006196282,0.1338579,0.00008692975,0.0001594826,0.0002205959,0.0006695339,0.8213393,0.0002615119,0.02174715,0.00371582,0.01778485],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002724738,0.0000326809,0.03787185,0.00008041636,0.0001050358,0.00004399751,0.0008695828,0.947813,0.0001820471,0.005542861,0.007381447,0.00004977438],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9352224,0.002147787,0.03774459,0.003660043,0.0001105306,0.0002023117,0.007250364,0.0001810859,0.01348095],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9859895,0.0009119784,0.006501028,0.0001129956,0.00001598234,0.00006997141,0.001454352,0.00001777739,0.004926454],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02457107,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1782765,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0698827843947236,"score_gpt":0.3886278364289114,"score_spread":0.3187450520341878,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}