{"id":"W4401174064","doi":"10.1175/jpo-d-24-0013.1","title":"An Empirical Model for Skillful Rogue Wave Forecasts","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Physical Oceanography","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria","funders":"Public Safety Canada","keywords":"Rogue wave; Hindcast; Wave model; Significant wave height; Meteorology; Buoy; Wind wave; Wind wave model; Superposition principle; Computer science; Environmental science; Nonlinear system; Geology; Physics; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001566336,0.0005170701,0.0004868724,0.000552391,0.0002138398,0.001085762,0.0009553591,0.00104313,0.002710446],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01042522,0.0003358294,0.0003489436,0.0003193098,0.0005875741,0.001234489,0.0006045417,0.001248208,0.0004198742],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008044791,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006054305,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01085891,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00522203,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996052,0.0001260915,0.00002393828,0.0001184811,0.00007450997,0.00005176741],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967903,0.002157496,0.0003974767,0.0001658253,0.0004209705,0.00006778073],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003642279,0.00004772486,0.00759881,0.00001377916,0.00002391331,0.00006048624,0.00004234658,0.9796142,0.0005530163,0.002639179,0.0002945659,0.009075661],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002027011,0.000006007709,0.0006299755,0.000002013279,0.000001502743,0.000004492251,0.000002961389,0.9986902,0.00004743806,0.0005726842,0.0000384928,0.000002122657],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7597272,0.0001961015,0.2331407,0.001129607,0.00005217366,0.00008473622,0.0004700392,0.0004320199,0.004767476],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9948317,0.00004825486,0.003618366,0.0000359023,0.00001258699,0.00003245894,0.000175453,0.00001381642,0.001231449],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01085891,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02159142,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04057885549565787,"score_gpt":0.3193032878366552,"score_spread":0.2787244323409974,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}