{"id":"W4401327447","doi":"10.3390/jrfm17080339","title":"Forecasting Credit Cycles: The Case of the Leveraged Finance Market in 2024 and Outlook","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Business cycle; Recession; Credit crunch; Credit cycle; Economics; Witness; Credit risk; Credit rating; Great recession; Credit history; Point (geometry); Financial crisis; Finance; Business; Macroeconomics; Keynesian economics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001676005,0.0003624931,0.0002796902,0.001251425,0.0004556617,0.002182743,0.0005916131,0.001814093,0.002390159],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007205639,0.0001896505,0.0003563533,0.001573436,0.0004769574,0.003266777,0.001092976,0.001661921,0.0003299359],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001662239,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006194733,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06206343,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0556616,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997904,0.00006868818,0.00001305014,0.00003468646,0.00004460788,0.00004872987],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984517,0.0004725186,0.0003235273,0.00005888915,0.0003726853,0.0003206491],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009212116,0.0002672997,0.5646675,0.0001410983,0.0001846122,0.00269938,0.0009832559,0.2379541,0.000835172,0.07580357,0.04913674,0.06640619],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000576349,0.0001999329,0.1672778,0.000145762,0.0000602531,0.0003095824,0.002404724,0.757013,0.0005626519,0.05050359,0.02136795,0.00009719783],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.9592233,0.001660801,0.003117446,0.01115517,0.000130742,0.00004357849,0.004874769,0.00008662495,0.01970757],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9952055,0.0005293392,0.001037389,0.0001876154,0.00004990053,0.00001097527,0.001624806,0.00001323671,0.001341147],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.06206343,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1234043,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03271269769515486,"score_gpt":0.2119281839284077,"score_spread":0.1792154862332528,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}