{"id":"W4402140527","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036392","title":"Phenological Shifts in Lake Ice Cover Across the Northern Hemisphere: A Glimpse Into the Past, Present, and the Future of Lake Ice Phenology","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Water Resources Research","topic":"Climate change and permafrost","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; ArcticNet","keywords":"Phenology; Northern Hemisphere; Climatology; Cover (algebra); Cryosphere; Physical geography; Environmental science; Geology; Geography; Sea ice; Ecology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000491144,0.0001195327,0.0001257393,0.0008406382,0.0001770396,0.0005416906,0.0001494809,0.0001520406,0.001226926],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006673266,0.00008309452,0.0001599676,0.00120281,0.0002355595,0.0005947021,0.0002167777,0.0001732386,0.00008130064],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004526655,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000238122,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03260971,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07241259,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999344,0.00001855776,0.000004254142,0.00001654242,0.00001033106,0.00001578468],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995894,0.0001050486,0.0001535351,0.00002251573,0.00007536952,0.00005412896],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007727888,0.00001628416,0.9720495,0.00006096908,0.00006975988,0.00006801995,0.0006555928,0.0009344216,0.001836521,0.000235372,0.0008604795,0.02313579],"study_design_scores_gemma":[7.728472e-7,0.000008923886,0.9987063,0.000007126415,0.000005416152,0.00001342912,0.0001836439,0.0004131805,0.00006075359,0.00004507428,0.0005532381,0.000002039446],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9958208,0.0009240182,0.0003095061,0.0002698094,0.000005831368,0.00000410985,0.001237192,0.00001309116,0.001415689],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9986956,0.0004134395,0.0002481744,0.00002233765,0.00001233675,0.000002840932,0.0004578609,0.000003096885,0.0001444669],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03260971,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06483978,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04093268029408786,"score_gpt":0.3056865282582958,"score_spread":0.264753847964208,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}