{"id":"W4402887383","doi":"10.3758/s13423-024-02584-3","title":"Stepwise updating of probabilities is neither universal nor fully explained by motor costs","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Psychonomic Bulletin & Review","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Psychology; Cognitive psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001373521,0.0005370997,0.0007874664,0.0005367691,0.0001656613,0.001111321,0.0009692929,0.0007169217,0.002860643],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01451206,0.0004273288,0.0007491969,0.0006885752,0.0008084964,0.003142997,0.0005591441,0.001159478,0.0005730349],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004146759,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007496825,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001666957,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001444191,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995651,0.00009435194,0.00003677653,0.0001554927,0.0001058579,0.00004250485],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9923855,0.005365828,0.0007500929,0.001056184,0.0003565067,0.00008574728],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003420075,0.00008615539,0.02554169,0.001577052,0.0007613102,0.0003679062,0.0002305783,0.05729999,0.007836402,0.1284195,0.004588742,0.7729486],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005798852,0.000314827,0.0903539,0.0004182446,0.0007069624,0.00141996,0.0001303085,0.2289016,0.01099674,0.6406453,0.02587592,0.0001782722],"study_design_candidate":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3196479,0.03876771,0.6046498,0.005472914,0.0007804172,0.0001018599,0.001050745,0.00228405,0.02724447],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9476544,0.01897371,0.02958786,0.000326561,0.0002785114,0.00004604574,0.0003768317,0.0001339206,0.002622239],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.002860643,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.009569764,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0586996792359878,"score_gpt":0.3693136863284013,"score_spread":0.3106140070924135,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}