{"id":"W4403020361","doi":"10.1093/jrssig/qmae079","title":"Bad stats: A regular series exploring slip-ups, snafus and salutary lessons from the world of statistics","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Significance","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"Series (stratigraphy); Statistics; Probability and statistics; Slip (aerodynamics); History; Mathematics; Econometrics; Computer science; Geology; Engineering; Paleontology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000624068,0.0002041928,0.0004335618,0.00003768813,0.0001450548,0.00004459978,0.0002147373,0.00003964492,0.0001039268],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002262918,0.0001325322,0.00005866863,0.0002899514,0.0004066153,0.0001279813,0.0001920401,0.0002459634,0.000009265118],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000662587,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00006014733,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004287073,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009571577,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984624,0.0001878393,0.0004372078,0.0004003742,0.0002354145,0.0002767462],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9894046,0.009989708,0.0001136575,0.0003796194,0.00005441852,0.00005800321],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00015194,0.00008885479,0.008026136,0.001060599,0.0005264638,0.000120133,0.006458163,0.00007830413,0.003564241,0.8458151,0.1030644,0.03104566],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001810161,0.00009039079,0.02378483,0.0005453515,0.0001681507,0.000001588527,0.00173755,0.000534743,0.001624798,0.8888553,0.08215787,0.0003184302],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6819798,0.05642369,0.1684282,0.07559605,0.002445862,0.00274542,0.008895672,0.001416815,0.002068512],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9418551,0.003173699,0.05258966,0.0004955352,0.0003176206,0.000244445,0.00001822828,0.00005568939,0.001250056],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2598753,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5404504,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3018305137376829,"score_gpt":0.4096318245244251,"score_spread":0.1078013107867422,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}