{"id":"W4403052486","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adp1346","title":"Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science Advances","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; Natural Environment Research Council; Sight Research UK","keywords":"Middle latitudes; Climatology; Environmental science; Climate extremes; Arctic; Extreme Cold; Atmospheric sciences; Climate model; Climate change; Geology; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001729933,0.0005902413,0.0008439992,0.0004876544,0.0004287538,0.002185076,0.001444609,0.0008931648,0.003100376],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003889013,0.0004516149,0.001120106,0.0007149227,0.0005124611,0.002267351,0.001234898,0.0007530446,0.000648882],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001010071,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006384368,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01660775,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01598876,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990517,0.0001414557,0.00008496389,0.0005181477,0.0001122405,0.00009148074],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977152,0.0006936024,0.0004680785,0.0006953821,0.0003221754,0.0001054129],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000383202,0.0001436228,0.6151626,0.0002979888,0.00148539,0.0001514109,0.0005348438,0.330034,0.008691994,0.004898957,0.003671177,0.03454484],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001433736,0.0001289421,0.5841283,0.0001481244,0.0004135673,0.0002148304,0.0008413729,0.3814656,0.004839472,0.01471399,0.01282517,0.000137361],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9507849,0.001670641,0.02368121,0.002207827,0.0001889262,0.0000270055,0.004163129,0.001184298,0.01609199],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9954113,0.000252388,0.001987213,0.0002667769,0.00002897021,0.000009331348,0.001542229,0.0001119727,0.000389772],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01660775,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03302217,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0581963664778324,"score_gpt":0.299748515312943,"score_spread":0.2415521488351106,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}