{"id":"W4403052486","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adp1346","title":"Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science Advances","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Environment and Climate Change Canada; Natural Environment Research Council; Sight Research UK","keywords":"Middle latitudes; Climatology; Environmental science; Climate extremes; Arctic; Extreme Cold; Atmospheric sciences; Climate model; Climate change; Geology; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004863182,0.00009856075,0.0001075698,0.00006002168,0.0001974699,0.00006542559,0.00015849,0.00002601176,0.0001377456],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000924219,0.00007818979,0.00001826541,0.0004619639,0.0009301035,0.001481876,0.0001493082,0.00007051327,0.000004254345],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007437985,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002583666,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008852799,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001098586,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987977,0.00001832145,0.0001658625,0.0004350614,0.0003703263,0.000212769],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995342,0.0001766866,0.00003745653,0.0001673301,0.00001547644,0.00006885472],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005506836,0.000305635,0.1066021,0.0004199246,0.00002633359,0.000007646714,0.007779592,0.1160405,0.5671522,0.02782444,0.0002071726,0.1735793],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009469531,0.0006161156,0.2529612,0.001326818,0.0001124938,0.00001997959,0.001384613,0.4033166,0.06118516,0.2160187,0.06085564,0.001255802],"study_design_candidate":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9946081,0.002797,0.0006222886,0.0006747858,0.0001390705,0.0001822639,0.00001016819,0.00002402116,0.0009423123],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9936379,0.001629243,0.004432555,0.000145793,0.00000866527,0.00001143125,6.973863e-7,0.000004998436,0.0001286816],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.505967,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3427005,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0581963664778324,"score_gpt":0.299748515312943,"score_spread":0.2415521488351106,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}