{"id":"W4403187578","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4978117","title":"Stock Prediction: Conventional vs. Advanced Models","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Stock (firearms); Econometrics; Computer science; Business; Economics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003280773,0.0005070906,0.0007686426,0.0006270061,0.0001618908,0.001568049,0.0009566657,0.0009493514,0.002259411],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008621654,0.000203769,0.0004267768,0.001001328,0.0003380988,0.003036071,0.0008964882,0.001397599,0.0005852144],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003049114,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005674696,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001938857,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001994567,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992633,0.0003020579,0.00003687607,0.0001231841,0.0002283557,0.00004613595],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9971319,0.002070688,0.0001812221,0.0002639256,0.0002608747,0.00009127065],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00193879,0.0003502784,0.01984488,0.0006040145,0.0004348936,0.0001494501,0.0001655394,0.4446675,0.0026229,0.07407205,0.01056375,0.444586],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004383745,0.0001082483,0.001510884,0.00002308825,0.00004982308,0.00002924482,0.00001659212,0.9745848,0.0002974971,0.02246422,0.0008616307,0.00001011642],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3818896,0.01766329,0.5810392,0.004287148,0.0008073183,0.0000748889,0.0009342736,0.0006944812,0.01260969],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9374166,0.005118589,0.0516604,0.000229444,0.0008632995,0.00005347557,0.0004402064,0.0000624052,0.004155617],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.003280773,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01735061,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08421259877174345,"score_gpt":0.3923737535388716,"score_spread":0.3081611547671281,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}