{"id":"W4403187578","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4978117","title":"Stock Prediction: Conventional vs. Advanced Models","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Stock (firearms); Econometrics; Computer science; Business; Economics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","metaepi_narrow","research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.03007833,0.0005998287,0.0008889565,0.001071334,0.0004396832,0.000970446,0.002429901,0.0005440462,0.0005694951],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003299437,0.0004848959,0.001058951,0.000845661,0.0001690469,0.0003772147,0.001970207,0.01294336,0.0003122132],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002633474,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01215556,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001651217,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000104261,"domain_scores_codex":[0.98858,0.001156942,0.001951718,0.001443378,0.003764564,0.003103345],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9950059,0.001405988,0.001131377,0.001108365,0.001051459,0.0002968788],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006747915,0.0001337337,0.0006336001,0.00005806736,0.001009183,0.00004457573,0.0003303032,0.05996551,0.00005084205,0.3208734,0.01576846,0.6004575],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005421758,0.000268818,0.0002725383,0.0002266954,0.000128938,0.001355273,0.0003688794,0.05950347,0.00001272267,0.9297919,0.007151997,0.0003765466],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.08275291,0.0246787,0.830476,0.004925019,0.02074011,0.001130004,0.0002484632,0.0004712738,0.03457747],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9098049,0.002869486,0.01650546,0.0001937389,0.003943328,0.0001456687,0.00004173161,0.0001972845,0.06629841],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.827052,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997603,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08421259877174345,"score_gpt":0.3923737535388716,"score_spread":0.3081611547671281,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}