{"id":"W4403214143","doi":"10.1007/s00787-024-02592-7","title":"Predicting criminal offence in adolescents who exhibit antisocial behaviour: a machine learning study using data from a large randomised controlled trial of multisystemic therapy","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry","topic":"Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending","field":"Psychology","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Prince Edward Island","funders":"Department of Health and Social Care; National Institute for Health and Care Research","keywords":"Random forest; Logistic regression; Child and adolescent psychiatry; Psychology; Machine learning; Psychological intervention; Predictive modelling; Artificial intelligence; Statistics; Computer science; Psychiatry; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02386828,0.0008583472,0.001988235,0.0005244116,0.0005119441,0.000855187,0.0008930499,0.00110946,0.001864679],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02981883,0.0006474353,0.002452222,0.0005321134,0.001240314,0.001001243,0.000767398,0.002038904,0.0002919885],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008875673,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001347115,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001855338,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00205951,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9854267,0.0123908,0.0005865386,0.0007132043,0.0005637449,0.0003190082],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9668245,0.02404958,0.004627827,0.002454952,0.00109425,0.0009490185],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"randomized_trial","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.5885087,0.04045509,0.2892832,0.00186372,0.009371224,0.0002398759,0.001500563,0.007729919,0.00191261,0.0004497977,0.001374546,0.05731069],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.198146,0.330188,0.4165083,0.0004457047,0.007862314,0.0002599098,0.0006439164,0.04183979,0.001435288,0.00105646,0.001423619,0.0001906432],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9981743,0.0002435889,0.0005601068,0.00008841747,0.00002266763,0.0006481936,0.000139642,0.00000809739,0.0001148958],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972608,0.0001828882,0.0009509142,0.00006820172,0.0000446612,0.0009845651,0.0003586147,0.000003746465,0.0001456157],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02386828,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.126229,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04833535739513299,"score_gpt":0.3341499878195031,"score_spread":0.2858146304243701,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}