{"id":"W4403353441","doi":"10.1080/23322039.2024.2411558","title":"Tail-risk spillovers and interconnectedness in international logistics markets: a QVAR approach","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Cogent Economics & Finance","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Business; Economics; Industrial organization","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009941281,0.0002464331,0.000426368,0.0003175339,0.00005873415,0.0002424918,0.0003470469,0.0001554516,0.000197264],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001901536,0.0003088053,0.0001066489,0.000187002,0.0001270391,0.0003248346,0.000203702,0.0003236364,0.00007146793],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003578989,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004301011,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001832877,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001170611,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979705,0.00002319442,0.0007878409,0.0008622369,0.00002338202,0.0003328416],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991773,0.00013283,0.0002289557,0.0003716522,0.00002220928,0.00006699786],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001131906,0.0001634095,0.3915655,0.0001550415,0.0001354364,0.00002205902,0.0006928424,0.0007310339,0.000001975917,0.5900718,0.0006713063,0.01567642],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004595349,0.00002642128,0.0487128,0.0000447419,0.00000745675,0.0000120519,0.00008791681,0.7506424,0.000002440596,0.04972368,0.1499077,0.0003729055],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9304647,0.005092957,0.01577402,0.0003877375,0.002022751,0.0003218938,0.001114297,0.00005608789,0.04476549],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9873943,0.009365724,0.001753747,0.0001205841,0.0001057043,0.00004438664,0.00007226972,0.00003654159,0.001106791],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7499113,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999364,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01846980511979164,"score_gpt":0.2120804870686059,"score_spread":0.1936106819488142,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}