{"id":"W4403403234","doi":"10.1101/2024.10.11.617776","title":"Cascading consequences of shifting ice phenology in an exploited lake","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto; Ministry of Environment; Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks; Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry","funders":"","keywords":"Phenology; Environmental science; Physical geography; Geography; Climatology; Ecology; Geology; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002290597,0.0001457295,0.0001693408,0.0004458168,0.0005532662,0.0005618484,0.0002042777,0.0002288036,0.0009158869],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000771079,0.0001195183,0.0002085126,0.0003655752,0.0004848327,0.000237433,0.0007138906,0.0001621234,0.00005891753],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002029923,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001210821,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1713993,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.3195409,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999138,0.00001076015,0.000004609909,0.00002080578,0.00001430027,0.00003563979],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997231,0.00003515803,0.00009228149,0.00001297439,0.00005091686,0.00008560516],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000105123,0.00003143809,0.9836683,0.00002207533,0.00006971526,0.0003386795,0.0007573647,0.003162289,0.008067574,0.0001869143,0.0001947719,0.003395736],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000001817937,0.00002652837,0.9934245,0.000003841308,0.00001644396,0.00003581375,0.0005978256,0.005448664,0.0002047016,0.00009860676,0.0001351442,0.000006034201],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.999743,0.000009584427,0.00006054288,0.00001710394,4.805523e-7,0.000001321793,0.00004336467,0.000003553029,0.0001209577],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9998819,0.000005086512,0.00002488969,0.000003388823,4.150764e-7,0.000001035397,0.00002910593,5.402255e-7,0.00005373773],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1713993,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3408031,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01939853020310927,"score_gpt":0.2229193701332568,"score_spread":0.2035208399301475,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}