{"id":"W4403503717","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4986343","title":"Analysis of the Burden of Disease and Global Predictions of Trachea, Bronchus and Lung Cancer in Globally, Regionally, 204 Countries, 1990-2035: A Controlled Study Based on the Gbd 2021, Arima and Bapc Models","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Public Health and Nutrition","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University Health Network","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Lung cancer; Bronchus; Cancer; Medicine; Disease; Lung; Internal medicine; Respiratory disease; Time series; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004828108,0.001106721,0.001308973,0.0006512459,0.00034574,0.001169692,0.001012028,0.001222102,0.002392691],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004782588,0.0006944071,0.004033824,0.001099232,0.0007516329,0.0006475605,0.001073032,0.001743082,0.0004519972],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009363935,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001001971,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06045492,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0209547,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979456,0.001248905,0.0000831802,0.0004026057,0.0001105875,0.0002091354],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9959288,0.002381587,0.0007643281,0.0005091124,0.0001966596,0.0002195254],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01596271,0.0009812706,0.9382686,0.0002977253,0.01120555,0.0004042863,0.0004413354,0.02272076,0.0006728149,0.0008668511,0.002706592,0.005471475],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001260691,0.002920367,0.9572246,0.00007293189,0.005012492,0.0001986506,0.0009840009,0.0289499,0.0007506766,0.0006239938,0.001928981,0.00007270965],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9950593,0.0007390153,0.0007076684,0.0001540581,0.00004723684,0.000034734,0.002939303,0.00002029002,0.0002983949],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9943326,0.0002517076,0.0004052458,0.00004213212,0.00002859862,0.00006439754,0.004272276,0.0000111454,0.0005920114],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06045492,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1202061,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01007847469134836,"score_gpt":0.2948282221814831,"score_spread":0.2847497474901348,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}