{"id":"W4403679577","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107975","title":"Geopolitical risk and energy price crash risk","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Energy Economics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":26,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Royal Roads University","funders":"","keywords":"Geopolitics; Crash; Economics; Energy (signal processing); Business; Actuarial science; Financial economics; Political science; Computer science; Politics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005449854,0.0001623983,0.0002494446,0.0007987284,0.0002036585,0.001731495,0.0002053612,0.0008461887,0.003986908],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00723638,0.0001426888,0.0002069461,0.001133704,0.000562483,0.001915434,0.0004777712,0.0009344817,0.0002547879],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005267233,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002364009,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003509192,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002994578,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998556,0.00004621294,0.00001043607,0.0000200379,0.00003495526,0.00003263957],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9962432,0.00201736,0.001132181,0.0001531759,0.0002844644,0.0001696125],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006176294,0.0001978092,0.5329164,0.0001188807,0.0003932505,0.001184829,0.0003979456,0.1387089,0.001450926,0.287381,0.007570426,0.02906191],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003013662,0.0001484854,0.4015132,0.00006195185,0.0001315968,0.0006947303,0.001702091,0.2528822,0.001083849,0.3321212,0.009551536,0.00007916903],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9707196,0.002707656,0.008539794,0.004456616,0.00008621596,0.000009324297,0.000487021,0.00004538948,0.01294844],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988575,0.0004357494,0.00005495966,0.00002171162,0.00003800143,9.977348e-7,0.00004924419,0.000003686389,0.0005382565],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003986908,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01333749,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008507282971593711,"score_gpt":0.1863112043678853,"score_spread":0.1778039213962916,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}