{"id":"W4403854789","doi":"10.1111/caje.12742","title":"Outward direct investment as a shelter from external trade policy shocks: Firm‐level investigation of the <scp>US</scp>–China trade war","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences; National Natural Science Foundation of China","keywords":"China; Trade war; Investment (military); Economics; International economics; International trade; Foreign direct investment; Macroeconomics; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006535448,0.0001982108,0.0003150195,0.001105945,0.0003260653,0.001588243,0.0002145237,0.0004117227,0.002404399],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002178536,0.0001062839,0.0003580427,0.001836445,0.0005949615,0.0005642438,0.0009350601,0.000670655,0.0002491479],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008578104,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005946032,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02661004,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03252204,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996898,0.00005552682,0.00002412519,0.00005771629,0.00006338647,0.0001094894],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9954969,0.0009694844,0.002599961,0.0001897086,0.0002548294,0.0004891084],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007592791,0.00003819159,0.9944529,0.00001120302,0.00008078261,0.0002034575,0.000131387,0.000950682,0.0004273942,0.000342911,0.0003460801,0.002939218],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002549025,0.00002799798,0.9973099,0.000006189281,0.0000223666,0.0000284689,0.0004261578,0.001475974,0.0002191379,0.000072364,0.0004043128,0.000004503412],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9986382,0.0001045314,0.00005091611,0.00009588927,0.000003315275,0.000002859513,0.0002590532,0.000003207668,0.0008418864],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9993667,0.00005639748,0.00001292132,0.00001585105,0.000005736753,0.000001200322,0.0003425025,8.574357e-7,0.0001978904],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02661004,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05291033,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1574223684078757,"score_gpt":0.1869873657063391,"score_spread":0.02956499729846343,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}