{"id":"W4404366661","doi":"10.1038/s41586-026-10540-5","title":"Lethal Plague Outbreaks in Lake Baikal Hunter–gatherers 5500 Years Ago","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Nature","topic":"Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research","field":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta; University of Saskatchewan","funders":"Novo Nordisk; Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; University of Alberta; National Research Foundation; Riksbankens Jubileumsfond; Danmarks Grundforskningsfond; H. Lundbeck A/S; Lundbeckfonden; Wellcome Trust","keywords":"Yersinia pestis; Plague (disease); Outbreak; Prehistory; Geography; Population; Biology; Demography; Virology; Virulence; Archaeology; Genetics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002392533,0.0002680994,0.000291858,0.001092313,0.001876281,0.000589602,0.0003885036,0.0007235283,0.002449526],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005196131,0.0002586283,0.000224346,0.0007277397,0.0004850243,0.000476878,0.0009613764,0.0005146536,0.0003482601],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00140809,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005351278,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06726967,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1020108,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997994,0.00002300918,0.00001456212,0.0000571561,0.00003340264,0.00007252008],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996314,0.00003415082,0.0001247862,0.00002021612,0.00005462425,0.0001349185],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000136623,0.00006275278,0.9864552,0.00002278856,0.00004577172,0.001012708,0.003384121,0.00004605265,0.00605897,0.00003342687,0.0003119544,0.002429605],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002243303,0.00003059337,0.9986091,0.000004022115,0.000006749516,0.0002091854,0.0008534724,0.00004695779,0.00006685821,0.00001034595,0.000156161,0.000004382416],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9995943,0.00005428493,0.00002674885,0.00002852701,0.00000293433,0.00000300121,0.0001020407,0.000003914554,0.0001841817],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.999393,0.00005932064,0.00006263101,0.00004066652,0.00000660053,0.000005906748,0.0001723318,0.000001551633,0.000258012],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06726967,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1337563,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008288685142826331,"score_gpt":0.3026295989465488,"score_spread":0.2943409138037225,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}