{"id":"W4405234630","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.12.005","title":"State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Dynamic regression and covariance analysis","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Infectious Disease Modelling","topic":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","field":"Medicine","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Mitacs; Sanofi","keywords":"Covariance; Statistics; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Regression analysis; Geography; State space; Computer science; Mathematics; Disease; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004237306,0.0007056843,0.000868041,0.00148374,0.0005808884,0.001382624,0.001226784,0.0005982048,0.001434278],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01861797,0.0003455644,0.001251732,0.00209502,0.000770171,0.0008321168,0.001103689,0.001262573,0.0002435719],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00369707,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.005573307,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.45746,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.4060028,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998174,0.0008875097,0.00008375444,0.0004106748,0.0002844335,0.000159698],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9934722,0.004308188,0.0009076632,0.000513826,0.0006869131,0.0001112804],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006451127,0.00008915708,0.09065143,0.0001369389,0.0003274819,0.0001341599,0.0004075827,0.7908416,0.0007464248,0.05936094,0.003107118,0.05413265],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000600248,0.00001780582,0.007983508,0.00002092691,0.00002345476,0.00001969587,0.00005808189,0.9788817,0.0001445047,0.01110448,0.001720101,0.00001975958],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2035644,0.0008114976,0.785358,0.001553778,0.00006684979,0.0001870095,0.005137022,0.0005131205,0.002808421],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8937999,0.0006528109,0.09762807,0.0001232417,0.00004677844,0.0002036793,0.004772354,0.00009072536,0.002682403],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.45746,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9095945,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02944584107628936,"score_gpt":0.3103519225343954,"score_spread":0.280906081458106,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}