{"id":"W4405759538","doi":"10.1111/jfir.12447","title":"The efficacy of market timing and value creation","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Journal of Financial Research","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of New Brunswick","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Cash flow; Market timing; Equity (law); Monetary economics; Business; Stock (firearms); Economics; Finance; Initial public offering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008403402,0.00007001322,0.0001937591,0.0002112506,0.000323395,0.0001468367,0.0003039661,0.00005272069,0.000058736],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002115814,0.00004199866,0.00007722431,0.0003813206,0.0003637887,0.0002032565,0.00007315064,0.0004120045,0.00001560704],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000541493,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001672226,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001373647,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000009955359,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988682,0.0001185895,0.0005452695,0.00009348928,0.0001439626,0.0002305202],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9978815,0.001611958,0.0001885175,0.000155103,0.0001223117,0.00004064727],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003092874,0.00003320637,0.0009069967,0.00006508449,0.0000303619,0.000007541996,0.0009034554,0.00001855306,0.0001309918,0.9416389,0.01925446,0.03670114],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00049618,0.0007146153,0.3685861,0.0003190972,0.00001746435,0.00003538699,0.0002164409,0.002169122,0.0003444579,0.3455853,0.281384,0.0001318421],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8708825,0.04268365,0.0003886515,0.005142283,0.0007443303,0.0002572686,0.0000186708,0.000006772056,0.07987592],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9882553,0.00958113,0.00007677117,0.00002686177,0.0003159886,0.00000222321,2.349772e-7,0.00001032728,0.001731199],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5960535,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2912468,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08744583914649613,"score_gpt":0.3355089070174155,"score_spread":0.2480630678709194,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}