{"id":"W4405793102","doi":"10.54254/2754-1169/2024.ga18931","title":"SSEC Forecast Based on ARIMA and ETS Models","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Advances in Economics Management and Political Sciences","topic":"Grey System Theory Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Econometrics; Meteorology; Environmental science; Computer science; Statistics; Geography; Mathematics; Time series","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006996461,0.0007020406,0.0006422177,0.001018581,0.0002957052,0.0009073936,0.0007038262,0.0005963601,0.001449306],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002696133,0.0002387795,0.0009142412,0.0008922984,0.0002389938,0.001122,0.0004296639,0.0008542373,0.0003472839],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004685527,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008171518,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02696884,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01640339,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995246,0.00008910851,0.00003823252,0.0001342014,0.0001555854,0.00005829402],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993566,0.0002824068,0.00009529452,0.00003341275,0.0002071524,0.0000251747],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009649642,0.00003886805,0.007622184,0.00005944898,0.00008103147,0.0001176155,0.00007733389,0.9317297,0.002385135,0.004370438,0.001322442,0.05209946],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002261085,0.000007629329,0.000800383,0.000002424622,0.000009862179,0.000007947287,0.000005750748,0.9978952,0.0002236694,0.0008074486,0.0002302462,0.000007044835],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3487535,0.001146032,0.6380269,0.0005671381,0.0002307322,0.00007514739,0.0009284443,0.001186769,0.009085172],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9714045,0.0005715432,0.02325915,0.0000516281,0.00008612184,0.0000469667,0.000756896,0.00004089197,0.003782299],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02696884,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05362374,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06917824494184087,"score_gpt":0.3701179098258013,"score_spread":0.3009396648839604,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}