{"id":"W4405819231","doi":"10.1002/jae.3090","title":"Noisy monetary policy announcements","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Monetary policy; Shock (circulatory); Economics; Sample (material); Federal funds; Monetary economics; Noise (video); Path (computing); Econometrics; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001436981,0.000265216,0.0007557982,0.003847406,0.00008419657,0.0002983866,0.0004889295,0.0001589111,0.001125885],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001144912,0.0002863302,0.0003581541,0.001407341,0.00006357528,0.0007551145,0.00007249802,0.0004314135,0.002582781],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005201881,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009549177,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00009962526,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00000172373,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973146,0.000006499371,0.001717746,0.0003866368,0.00006379456,0.0005107076],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998477,0.0001393466,0.0007455703,0.0003298571,0.00001959179,0.0002885677],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000275995,0.0004962352,0.01723813,0.0004553371,0.002250476,0.0001543152,0.002779259,0.03308074,0.0001148397,0.806555,0.08596826,0.05063138],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001117556,0.0003322566,0.008029177,0.00003955465,0.00004199053,0.0001447168,0.000135965,0.015771,0.0001023579,0.1827108,0.7908987,0.0006758507],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6193358,0.02287292,0.008009498,0.003506829,0.004277988,0.0004092205,0.000830929,0.0001060724,0.3406508],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.993053,0.001860145,0.001570998,0.000913162,0.001652108,0.000005173741,0.00001858716,0.00005011681,0.00087668],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7049305,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999589,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1002080400783147,"score_gpt":0.2398668283718048,"score_spread":0.13965878829349,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}