{"id":"W4405963553","doi":"10.1002/jae.3106","title":"Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Recession; Yield (engineering); Predictive power; Economics; Econometrics; Keynesian economics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004117849,0.0004046471,0.0003730566,0.001513582,0.0003482475,0.001660629,0.0004144629,0.000722429,0.002637488],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0218515,0.000198497,0.000426704,0.001022937,0.0003861659,0.0009991889,0.0008052104,0.001318456,0.000675061],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004195181,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004443181,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03994558,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02024332,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996278,0.0001588872,0.00002136609,0.00008918641,0.00006555556,0.0000371885],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9813669,0.01357292,0.001651059,0.0008151232,0.001904451,0.000689561],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003700164,0.0001005631,0.9274899,0.00002465439,0.0001738768,0.0001583825,0.0002200047,0.0454573,0.0003872105,0.0009954365,0.003439117,0.02118353],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000037611,0.0002311172,0.5499449,0.00007486135,0.0001533485,0.0000819577,0.0007313562,0.4440872,0.00069526,0.002455458,0.001463358,0.00004366499],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9950182,0.000407074,0.001388579,0.001144929,0.00003638728,0.000004405962,0.0004941371,0.0000506959,0.001455586],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989079,0.0001112167,0.0002253754,0.00003448849,0.00002721232,0.000001076807,0.0004777802,0.000006225443,0.0002086152],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03994558,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07942611,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1325148330035121,"score_gpt":0.2637311799553406,"score_spread":0.1312163469518286,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}