{"id":"W4406026472","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5065135","title":"The Effects of Initial Information on Macroeconomic Expectations: An Exploration-Exploitation Behavioral Framework","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Psychology; Economics; Cognitive psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006912229,0.0007187596,0.001044173,0.000772179,0.0005710963,0.00402179,0.001059939,0.003158463,0.0074114],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04591292,0.0008143251,0.000955127,0.0005799999,0.002648613,0.005283363,0.002286091,0.003536607,0.0004247586],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001187869,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001138887,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002803105,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001747396,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985501,0.0007985215,0.00006245358,0.0001791481,0.0001812017,0.000228506],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9406112,0.05051046,0.004188904,0.00174861,0.001299691,0.0016411],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002440452,0.0009876554,0.03893451,0.0003491339,0.0004219803,0.0009873083,0.002258966,0.2145663,0.008957316,0.6866131,0.002725034,0.04075823],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002468751,0.0006886855,0.030867,0.00008093927,0.0002228055,0.0001952189,0.000787577,0.4556844,0.001644104,0.5085719,0.0008709023,0.000139524],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.877077,0.0005437785,0.08172795,0.00676037,0.00007137741,0.0001053918,0.0004343458,0.000108603,0.0331711],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994907,0.0002583754,0.00221995,0.0001608493,0.00004232428,0.00002587177,0.00005153698,0.00001916292,0.002314969],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0074114,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03655583,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02363270625305593,"score_gpt":0.2924129422578606,"score_spread":0.2687802360048047,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}