{"id":"W4406227300","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5786667/v1","title":"COVID-19 Transmission During the Winter 2023-24 Surge: A Comparative Analysis of Surveillance Estimates in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Research Square","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Surge; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Transmission (telecommunications); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Geography; Meteorology; Virology; Telecommunications; Biology; Medicine; Computer science; Outbreak; Internal medicine; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002867243,0.0003940227,0.0004941953,0.002523812,0.0006114026,0.001328061,0.001131721,0.0004860888,0.002013456],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007696798,0.0002619912,0.0009459516,0.007647546,0.0004660597,0.0006662227,0.00110381,0.000907372,0.0002859255],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00781752,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01383062,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9716169,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9574058,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985852,0.0002837938,0.0001009006,0.0002052452,0.0003891822,0.0004356801],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960291,0.0006673723,0.0009517031,0.0002257574,0.001689629,0.0004365291],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003339116,0.00003316195,0.9663598,0.0001548846,0.0005672606,0.0000881493,0.0006463506,0.00267907,0.0001222707,0.001528632,0.01724772,0.01023877],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009997555,0.00001747543,0.9947869,0.00007966274,0.00007860102,0.00004038886,0.0008738621,0.001890576,0.00006971592,0.0001135566,0.002028349,0.00001098313],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8714421,0.005467024,0.0009752932,0.002306533,0.00007412651,0.00008261418,0.1146691,0.00007206259,0.004911163],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9612193,0.001404678,0.00039725,0.0001418862,0.00002319294,0.00003019454,0.03607581,0.00002093201,0.0006868459],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02838308,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05710042,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2779115672231767,"score_gpt":0.5095277797297033,"score_spread":0.2316162125065266,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}