{"id":"W4406570228","doi":"10.22541/essoar.173724452.25902250/v1","title":"Subseasonal Prediction Skill of Winter Quasi-Stationary Waves in the Northern Hemisphere","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Strong","keywords":"Northern Hemisphere; Climatology; Meteorology; Environmental science; Atmospheric sciences; Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005158138,0.0004516627,0.0002713799,0.0002214949,0.0001405853,0.0006116378,0.0002824789,0.0003746825,0.001258442],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001743932,0.000159565,0.0004149944,0.0001964803,0.000188937,0.000533934,0.000300315,0.0002737334,0.0001878359],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004458228,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006337303,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.08247232,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.05182552,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998747,0.0000269245,0.000009663203,0.00004593827,0.00001921977,0.0000235491],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994891,0.0002047299,0.0000842891,0.00006333918,0.00009585042,0.00006280289],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002160373,0.00007480282,0.1811578,0.00003449954,0.0001978696,0.0001229741,0.00009125768,0.799198,0.004442536,0.0004075097,0.001222477,0.01283419],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002978268,0.00006389489,0.09788003,0.00001162338,0.00003204395,0.00002219894,0.00005866004,0.8997308,0.0014627,0.0003417842,0.0003447478,0.00002168669],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9972506,0.00007049197,0.0009488291,0.00009442282,0.0000121535,0.000003424616,0.0005238133,0.000106475,0.0009898036],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988826,0.00003192142,0.0002845798,0.00001090714,0.000005161416,0.000002221714,0.0005279947,0.00001141283,0.0002433179],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08247232,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1639845,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.00973467902612989,"score_gpt":0.2157216847719685,"score_spread":0.2059870057458386,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}