{"id":"W4406634675","doi":"10.1080/17509653.2025.2453902","title":"Machine learning gold price forecasting","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":54,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Advanced Micro Devices (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00195874,0.00008703127,0.0001370476,0.0009221174,0.00006147613,0.000191154,0.0005043975,0.00001484298,0.00002457471],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00009879933,0.00009232989,0.00004463179,0.0003908488,0.00003877619,0.0003236874,0.0003229713,0.0001175962,0.000002711658],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001695201,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000005255704,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000009231458,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":5.112184e-7,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990414,0.000003361809,0.0004275176,0.0001901153,0.0001694214,0.0001682322],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995343,0.00002193957,0.0002079279,0.00009616552,0.00009449632,0.00004518272],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003838948,0.00009102892,0.04965161,0.0002353516,0.0005357367,0.0001001452,0.0001161039,0.0161105,0.00001436467,0.8736066,0.0005229094,0.05897724],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006024535,0.00002970522,0.05305082,0.000152722,0.00001667149,0.000009020205,0.00008462954,0.7595564,0.000005424504,0.009359643,0.1769857,0.0001469051],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1193788,0.001827217,0.3796434,0.003279084,0.004638589,0.0003913889,0.00001006084,0.00006212252,0.4907693],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9911118,0.000744838,0.005458478,0.0001392887,0.00003753616,0.000003374695,8.59507e-7,0.000005154015,0.002498713],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.871733,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3765104,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01323392208461119,"score_gpt":0.2110447076681823,"score_spread":0.1978107855835711,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}