{"id":"W4406885121","doi":"10.22541/essoar.173809919.98909811/v1","title":"On the importance of the reference data: Uncertainty partitioning of bias-adjusted climate simulations over Quebec","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria; Ouranos","funders":"","keywords":"Econometrics; Climate simulation; Environmental science; Statistics; Climate model; Computer science; Climate change; Mathematics; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007560024,0.0003968439,0.0003050306,0.001421557,0.001062296,0.001640411,0.0006947764,0.0006501197,0.0005356608],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02719895,0.0001570659,0.0004573022,0.001756056,0.001100647,0.001008177,0.0009854687,0.0006066701,0.00004275033],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00515082,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003707815,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.7029449,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.6178995,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978654,0.001093662,0.00009742218,0.0002795952,0.000447419,0.0002165986],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9848444,0.009777535,0.0008240355,0.001036937,0.003241794,0.0002753151],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004831727,0.0000603635,0.2690628,0.000150793,0.000341725,0.0002723729,0.0007302278,0.679992,0.002786362,0.01002197,0.001898192,0.03420011],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003813392,0.00004024819,0.2142866,0.0001198468,0.00009932495,0.00005377601,0.0007162053,0.7740284,0.003991063,0.004240973,0.002303215,0.00008222595],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9785785,0.0005255147,0.01561059,0.0006110812,0.00001670813,0.00004163926,0.001279657,0.00009773771,0.00323855],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994478,0.0001017516,0.004332528,0.00004358446,0.000007508469,0.00001147082,0.0008158326,0.00002723097,0.0001822612],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2970551,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5976089,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1348609540531286,"score_gpt":0.3207721174477009,"score_spread":0.1859111633945723,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}