{"id":"W4406968108","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-24-0046.1","title":"On the Predictability of Springtime Ozone Depletion Events using the ECCC Global Deterministic Prediction System","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Monthly Weather Review","topic":"Atmospheric Ozone and Climate","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; Environmental science; Ozone depletion; Meteorology; Atmospheric sciences; Ozone; Geology; Mathematics; Geography; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008173393,0.0001355218,0.0002604747,0.000004275983,0.0001916526,0.00001570375,0.0002652259,0.000043665,0.0003725189],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00009827632,0.00006822278,0.0001212982,0.0002983136,0.00006818569,0.00005494199,0.00001957089,0.00009169326,0.00005147899],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003204695,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004479145,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006249917,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000178385,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986666,0.0003037351,0.0003963437,0.0002074309,0.0002521902,0.0001737437],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991637,0.0001564905,0.0001708154,0.0004409363,0.00003633145,0.00003173247],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007703945,0.00007642685,0.9517479,0.003348851,0.0001321833,0.000004505819,0.00008073183,0.003190708,0.000004391216,0.001224557,0.0007412386,0.03937149],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003598519,0.0002736356,0.8931832,0.01146033,0.0007757497,0.00001427787,0.000252546,0.07811399,0.000006862782,0.001092639,0.0142257,0.0002411734],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8897648,0.07352629,0.001133263,0.0008707474,0.0007191712,0.002017091,0.0003616619,0.000104464,0.03150247],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9981116,0.00133028,0.00008879033,0.0003558541,0.00003043487,0.00000857425,0.0000121722,0.000002676335,0.00005959777],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1083468,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4078821,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01681950916716019,"score_gpt":0.2453672404978229,"score_spread":0.2285477313306627,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}