{"id":"W4406991326","doi":"10.3390/jrfm18020066","title":"A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Blockchain Technology Applications and Security","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Demand forecasting; Economics; Supply and demand; Microeconomics; Operations management","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001478792,0.001031622,0.001057171,0.0009832132,0.0006685603,0.003005183,0.001929941,0.002347478,0.0101165],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005519656,0.0008778157,0.001017173,0.001051558,0.0009061412,0.003136183,0.001416237,0.00212324,0.001198249],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00166107,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001618527,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01886734,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01223791,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994231,0.0002060209,0.00003133648,0.0001272886,0.0001220627,0.00009014304],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986119,0.0006960944,0.0002401877,0.000092116,0.0002658709,0.0000937329],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002343886,0.00003281492,0.0009039099,0.00003546257,0.00002539792,0.0001544565,0.00008447142,0.8073583,0.00068811,0.1842758,0.001667576,0.004750213],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004599814,0.000005336952,0.0001103886,0.000006247025,0.000003870648,0.00001317319,0.00001315323,0.9748537,0.00004935405,0.02381837,0.001112203,0.000009625826],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.03663831,0.000475167,0.9331439,0.002011028,0.000143825,0.00009670549,0.001262176,0.0002983874,0.02593058],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8939099,0.001025548,0.08320477,0.0002669694,0.0002033533,0.0002859398,0.00104704,0.0001929525,0.01986355],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01886734,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03751504,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.007214253655007286,"score_gpt":0.2288285363830762,"score_spread":0.2216142827280689,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}