{"id":"W4407023814","doi":"10.1101/2025.01.30.25321209","title":"Quantitative observational evidence of indirect herd benefits from COVID-19 vaccination or prior infection on SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University Health Network; BC Centre for Disease Control; University of Toronto; Toronto Public Health","funders":"","keywords":"Medicine; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Retrospective cohort study; Vaccination; Observational study; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Population; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Cohort study; Herd immunity; Cohort; Virology; Pandemic; Outbreak; Environmental health; Internal medicine; Disease; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001512559,0.0004065402,0.0005391355,0.001073461,0.00135114,0.001091713,0.001515952,0.0004668868,0.002836446],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004745673,0.0004632871,0.001105229,0.003098629,0.0007640378,0.0004274189,0.0007843269,0.00068606,0.0002170335],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01147305,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01394054,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9706806,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.974955,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998669,0.0001923612,0.0001419324,0.0003592435,0.0002874355,0.0003500645],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9943331,0.0005372817,0.002244434,0.0004855946,0.00159864,0.0008009266],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003359506,0.00000634362,0.9987778,0.00002411231,0.0001125198,0.00002158597,0.0001132069,0.00003713162,0.00002881259,0.00003286988,0.0003352162,0.0004769009],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008216771,0.00001170057,0.9990622,0.00003412923,0.00006809965,0.00003072886,0.000194971,0.0001705019,0.0000140477,0.00002147933,0.0003786884,0.000005198656],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9793128,0.001896518,0.000367304,0.0004734809,0.00002644455,0.00005339543,0.01612744,0.00001733525,0.001725264],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9961044,0.0005080211,0.0001715877,0.00008758371,0.00001054761,0.00002630964,0.002526846,0.000005138213,0.0005595485],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02931941,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08324313,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1464907763555934,"score_gpt":0.3974236818168639,"score_spread":0.2509329054612706,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}