{"id":"W4407093579","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5938123/v1","title":"Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Mpox in the African Region (2022–2024): Addressing Zero-Inflation and Spatial Autocorrelation","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Research Square","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Canadian Institutes of Health Research","keywords":"Autocorrelation; Zero (linguistics); Bayesian probability; Spatial analysis; Econometrics; Inflation (cosmology); Statistics; Mathematics; Economics; Geography; Physics; Theoretical physics; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005511932,0.0004848285,0.001485196,0.0009124307,0.0008894755,0.001846899,0.00244685,0.002481614,0.005781318],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01596612,0.0008955947,0.001329436,0.001362288,0.001121343,0.002110903,0.001999608,0.002442964,0.0004426976],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001465702,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002264038,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1180325,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.08517816,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986092,0.0008019615,0.00003623464,0.0002416038,0.00005035468,0.0002606512],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9933853,0.00490616,0.0006753978,0.0002960811,0.0004138692,0.0003232225],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003497857,0.0001370743,0.05680675,0.0001433699,0.0004741391,0.0005003097,0.0007419185,0.7598826,0.0005637106,0.1468723,0.006977553,0.02655065],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002976828,0.00002560735,0.006474543,0.0000325863,0.00005500409,0.0000299141,0.0001953363,0.9676564,0.00008692589,0.02435797,0.001033551,0.00002244582],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.793258,0.001844713,0.1867962,0.01033067,0.000166311,0.00008914977,0.003486397,0.0001965745,0.003831902],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.981822,0.0003721995,0.01172885,0.0001771282,0.00007467498,0.00006110781,0.0009083265,0.00004856705,0.004807201],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1180325,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2346908,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3760229020785248,"score_gpt":0.4998433911061876,"score_spread":0.1238204890276629,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}